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The narrowing of Slovakia's foreign trade surplus should slow down |
Bratislava, 10.06.2025 |
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The narrowing of Slovakia's foreign trade surplus should slow down further in the coming months, or even stop. This was stated by Ľubomír Koršňák, an analyst at UniCredit Bank, in a comment on the data on April foreign trade published by the Statistical Office (ŠÚ) of the Slovak Republic.
"This should be primarily contributed to by weaker domestic consumer demand, which will be dampened by fiscal consolidation. Exports will recover only very slowly, as they will still be hampered, especially in the first half of the year, by weak external demand, especially on the European market, and from the second quarter by new American tariffs. American tariffs will mainly affect Slovak car factories, while the space for finding alternative markets is already relatively limited," he explained.
On the other hand, according to Koršňák, car exports should be supported by the investment and model cycle of domestic car factories. “Investment exports could show signs of recovery towards the end of the year under the influence of the ECB’s loose monetary policy, which should gradually increase demand for investment goods in the eurozone,” added Koršňák.
“Uncertainty in global trade policy continues to be reflected in subdued export performance, the driving force of our economy. Approaching a balanced foreign trade balance is a negative development, given the structure of the domestic economy, which will reduce economic growth in the near future,” added Tomáš Boháček, an analyst at 365.bank.
"Only when satisfactory agreements on tariffs are reached will we see an improvement, but this will not happen before the end of the summer. The planned tax holidays in Germany, which have the potential to increase our trade deficits again, can visibly contribute to a faster recovery of foreign demand for our products. Until then, the American dream of balanced trade will be a nightmare for us," concluded the 365.bank analyst.
The Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic reported that, according to preliminary results, goods worth 9 billion euros were exported from Slovakia in April 2025, down 0.3% year-on-year. Imports of goods, on the other hand, increased by 4.2% and also reached approximately 9 billion euros. Foreign trade ended in April with a minimum deficit of 273,000 euros, which is the smallest difference between exports and imports in history.
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