 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| Trade war fears have little impact on EU inflation |
| Bratislava, 24.02.2025 |
|
| Uncertainty about the future development of inflation is currently considerable, with the key possible impact being the escalation of trade wars in the global economy. Planned increased tariffs on imports to the US are leading to a strengthening of the US dollar, which is resulting in higher prices for goods imported into the eurozone and other regions. However, concerns about the trade war have so far had only a small impact on inflation in the eurozone, analysts at the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) stated in a recent commentary.
"Overall, the euro has weakened against the currencies of our trading partners by approximately 2.5% since September last year. On average, such a weakening could be reflected in an increase in inflation by approximately 0.1 percentage point (p. p.) over the course of the year, according to estimates by the European Central Bank (ECB)," the analysts calculated. The current exchange rate development should make imports contracted in US dollars more expensive, in particular. This applies in particular to fuel prices, which react relatively quickly to changes in world oil prices, and the weakening of the euro against the dollar increases their price on the domestic market.
According to analysts, the escalation of the tariff and trade war could disrupt the functioning of mutual trade between the US and the European Union (EU). Higher tariffs and a stronger dollar mean that Europe will lose competitiveness in the American market. It will therefore export less, economic growth will slow down and inflationary pressures in some sectors, especially in goods, may also ease."However, if the situation in trade relations were to escalate and escalate into a tariff war, this could lead to more serious disruptions in trade and disruption of supply chains. This could subsequently have a negative impact on economic activity and price growth," the analysts explained.
They recalled that the EU had recorded trade surpluses with the US in recent years, but they were not significant. For example, in 2023, it achieved a surplus in trade in goods with the United States of approximately 150 billion euros, while in services it recorded a deficit of over 100 billion euros.
"Overall, Europe has recorded certain surpluses in recent years, which express investors' interest in capital flows from the EU to the US. From this perspective, this situation signals a good performance of the US economy, since investing in the US provides a good return and is, according to the majority of economists, mutually beneficial," the NBS analysts added.odkaz na stránku |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Address : Euro-Brew Ltd., Hlboká 22, 917 01 Trnava, Slovakia
Tel. : +421 33 53 418 53, Fax : +421 33 53 418 52, E-mail : info@eurobrew.sk |
|
|
