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| The new harvest poses a greater risk to the future trend of crop prices. |
| Bratislava, 24.09.2026 |
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| The new harvest poses a greater risk to the future trajectory of crop prices. The Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic estimates this year's wheat production at approximately 1.9 million tonnes, a 15% year-on-year decrease. For corn, production is expected to drop by as much as 39%. Primary producers replenish their stocks primarily through their own harvests and purchases, though imports from within the European market can also supplement supply if needed. This was stated by Ondrej Gregu, a financial market analyst at XTB, in a commentary on crop balance data for the first half of 2026, released by the Statistical Office on Wednesday.
"However, a weaker harvest does not automatically mean an immediate rise in the price of bread or baked goods. The decisive factor will be the future price trends for milling wheat and flour on the Slovak and European markets. If the lower harvest were to push these prices up, the effect would likely be passed on to retail prices gradually over the coming months," he noted.
"The figure showing that stocks of most cereals fell by more than 60% during the first half of the year might seem dramatic at first glance. However, it is important to note that the Statistical Office compares stock levels at the beginning of January with those at the end of June. During this period, stocks from the previous harvest are naturally sold, processed, or exported," Gregu explained.
According to him, this is clearly evident in the case of soft wheat. "Although stocks fell from approximately 522,000 tonnes to 197,000 tonnes, the level at the end of June this year was the highest recorded in the available data series dating back to 2021. A year earlier, during the same period, stocks stood at approximately 76,000 tonnes. Therefore, the decline in stocks alone does not currently indicate a wheat shortage in Slovakia," added the XTB analyst.
The Statistical Office reported that stocks of most cereals decreased by more than 60% during the first half of 2026. Grain maize saw the sharpest declinedropping by nearly 80%with the majority of the volume going to market. Among oilseeds, sunflower stocks fell by over 86%. Conversely, rapeseed was the only crop to record a slight increase in stocks, with supplies from domestic harvests predominating.
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Address : Euro-Brew Ltd., Hlboká 22, 917 01 Trnava, Slovakia
Tel. : +421 33 53 418 53, Fax : +421 33 53 418 52, E-mail : info@eurobrew.sk |
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