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| International Monetary Fund: Tariffs from Asia will hit the region's economic growth |
| Cebu, 19.11.2024 |
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| Asia's retaliation for Donald Trump's planned high tariffs could jeopardize the region's future economic growth, increase costs and disrupt supply networks. This was stated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which, however, continues to expect the region to remain the main engine of growth of the world economy. This was reported by Reuters.
"Eye-for-eye retaliation can jeopardize growth prospects across the region and reduce the efficiency of supply chains," Krishna Srinivasan, the IMF's director for Asia and the Pacific, told a systemic risk forum in Cebu, Philippines. His comments come at a time when the whole world is waiting for the next steps of the newly elected US President Donald Trump, who promised to impose high import tariffs on Chinese goods in the election campaign. These should reach up to 60%. In addition, it wants to introduce a blanket tariff on all goods from abroad, at least at the level of 10%.
In its latest economic outlook, the IMF expects global growth of 3.2% this year and next. In the case of this year, the fund confirmed the estimate from the summer, but as far as 2025 is concerned, it slightly worsened the forecast.
At the same time, the fund worsened the growth prospects of the key Chinese economy this year. In July, it expected growth of 5%, now it has reduced the estimate to 4.8%. For 2025, the IMF has left its estimate unchanged, i.e. it continues to expect growth of 4.5%.
Despite the risks, the growth of the Asian region will be significantly higher than the growth of the global economy in the near term. The IMF expects growth in Asia at 4.6% this year and 4.4% next year. However, it is trade relations that will largely determine future developments. "Asia is undergoing a period of significant change increasing uncertainty, including an 'acute risk' of an escalation of trade disputes between key trading partners," Srinivasan added.
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